目标价格政策下新疆棉花供给反应研究

Study on Xinjiang cotton supply response under the target price policy

为评价目标价格补贴政策对新疆棉花生产的影响,利用新疆棉区20个棉花主产县近10年棉花面板数据构建Nerlove扩展模型,采用系统GMM估计方法,对目标价格补贴政策背景下的新疆棉花供给反应进行实证研究。结果表明:目标价格补贴对棉花播种面积具有正向影响,弹性系数为0.068;上一期棉花销售价格对于本期棉花播种面积具有正向影响,短期价格弹性为0.627,长期价格弹性为4.834;上一期棉花播种面积对于本期棉花播种面积具有正向影响,弹性系数为0.870;上一期棉花种植成本、棉花替代作物价格对棉花播种面积具有负向影响,但结果未通过显著性检验;农业用水量对棉花播种面积具有负向影响,结果同样未通过显著性检验;时间趋势变量对于棉花播种面积具有负向影响,可能是近年来新疆大力发展林果的农业产业政策对棉花播种面积产生的负向作用。研究表明:植棉预期收益是影响棉农种植决策的首要因素,棉农基于往期棉花销售价格及目标价格补贴确定本期植棉预期收益,决定本期棉花播种面积;新疆棉农的种植决策对于供给反应的调整比较缓慢,种植决策受前期的影响较大,不能根据市场及时调整生产播种情况;长远看,新疆棉花播种面积发展受水资源管理政策和林果发展双重约束有继续下滑的可能。

To explore the impact of the target price subsidy policy on cotton production in Xinjiang,and to understand the response of cotton production to sale prices and target price subsidies,an expanded Nerlove model was established based on the panel data of cotton production and the prices information from 20 cotton producing counties in Xinjiang over the past 10 years.The target price subsidy was introduced in the model,and system GMM estimation method was employed to study the Xinjiang cotton supply response and the main influencing factors under the policy.The results showed that:The target price subsidy had a positive impact on the cotton sown area with an elasticity coefficient of 0.068;The cotton sales price of the previous period had a positive effect on the cotton sown area with short-term price elasticity of 0.627 and long-term price elasticity of 4.834;The cotton sown area of the previous period had a positive effect on the cotton sown area,and the elasticity coefficient was 0.870;The cotton production cost and price of cotton substitute crop in the previous period had a negative impact on the cotton sown area,but the results did not pass the significance test;Agricultural water consumption had a negative impact on cotton sown area,and the results also did not pass the significance test;The time trend variable had a negative impact on cotton sown area,which might be the negative effect of Xinjiang’s agricultural industry policy of vigorously developing fruits in recent years.The research showed that the expected profit of cotton planting was the first factor that affects the cotton farmers’planting decision.The cotton farmers determined the expected profit of cotton planting based on the cotton sales price and target price subsidy of the previous periods and determine the cotton sown area.The adjustment of planting was relatively slow,and the planting decision was greatly affected by the early stage,and the production and planting situation could not be adjusted in time according to the market change.In the long run,the development of cotton sown area in Xinjiang is likely to continue to decline due to the dual constraints of water resources management policies and fruit development.