城市化对居民液态奶消费的影响——基于农民工的视角

Effect of urbanization on liquid milk consumption:Based on migrant workers’perspective

为探究城市化对居民液态奶消费的影响,从农民工消费角度出发,基于2014年在我国5省调研得到的截面数据,采用Heckman两步法分析城市化影响液态奶消费的途径。结果表明:城市化进程下,居民收入、市场发育程度、居民消费习惯对液态奶消费增长的贡献依次增大,在经济较发达的地区,消费习惯的贡献更加明显,在经济较不发达的地区,收入和市场发育程度的贡献相对突出;消费选择是影响液态奶平均消费水平的关键,而且相比于农村居民,农民工的消费习惯正在接近城市居民。根据分析结果,做出了液态奶消费增长预测,建议以培养消费习惯、缩小城乡差距、提高农民工保障水平作为促进居民液态奶消费的重要途径。

In order to explore the effect of urbanization on Chinese citizen’s liquid milk consumption,based on the perspective of migrant workers,this study uses cross-sectional data of 5 provinces in China and Heckman’s two-step model to analyze the impact channels.The results suggested that income,market maturity and consumption habit contributed to the increase of milk consumption in the process of urbanization.And the effect the three factors increased progressively.In more developed districts,the effect of consumption habit was more important.In less developed districts,the effects of income and market maturity were more important.The selection process of milk consumption was the key factor influencing average consumption level.Compared to rural residents,the migrant worker’s consumption habit was approaching that of city residents.In conclusion,this study predicts the growth of milk consumption in China.Developing citizen’s consumption habit,decreasing rural-urban gap and enhancing migrant worker’s welfare are important ways to promote milk consumption in China.