全面二孩政策下乌鲁木齐市居民生育成本研究

Study on Fertility Cost of Urumqi Residents under the Comprehensive Two-child Fertility Policy

基于2005—2018年《乌鲁木齐统计年鉴》和实地调研数据,对乌鲁木齐市居民的生育成本进行研究。结果表明:(1)抚养一个孩子从怀孕至大学毕业成本约为23.03万~67.61万元,其中,直接成本为22.83万~66.74万元,以2018年市场利率为基准货币化的间接成本为0.20万~0.87万元。全面二孩政策后,在与一孩生活和教育条件相同以及不更新住房的情况下,生育二孩从怀孕至大学毕业的边际成本为51.96万~78.47万元。(2)直接成本主要体现在孩子的教育成本上,教育成本占直接成本的42.01%~75.82%,家庭收入以及对孩子的未来期望决定了教育成本的高低。(3)间接成本与总和生育率之间呈负相关关系,女性的生育行为受间接成本的影响。降低生育成本、提高生育率需要国家、用人单位、家庭和个人三方共同配合。

Based on“Urumqi Statistical Yearbook”(2005—2018)and field survey data,the paper studies the birth cost of residents in Urumqi City.The following conclusions are drawn:(1)It is calculated that the cost of raising a child from pregnancy to university graduation is about 230300~676100 yuan,including the direct cost of 228300~667400 yuan;based on the market interest rate in 2018,the indirect cost of monetization is 2000~8700 yuan.After the comprehensive two-child policy,under the same living and educational conditions as the first child,and without housing renewal,the marginal cost of giving birth to a second child from pregnancy to university graduation is estimated to be 519600~784700 yuan.(2)The direct cost is mainly reflected in children’s education cost,which accounts for 42.01%~75.82%of the total.Family income and future expectation of children determine the level of education cost.(3)Indirect cost has a negative correlation with the total fertility rate,and women’s reproductive behavior is affected by indirect cost.In order to reduce the cost of childbearing and improve the fertility rate,the government,employers,families and individuals need to cooperate with each other.