发电成本垂直差异电力市场概率发电——基于大用户电量偏好视角

Probabilistic generating in the vertical generation cost-differentiated electricity market:A perspective from the large user’s generation capacity preference

针对碳减排后普遍存在的发电成本垂直差异电力市场及其显著的大用户电量偏好差异,本文提出概率性电量供给以及与之对应的概率发电,并利用价格杠杆调控发电商低碳发电尤其高发电成本发电机会与供给效能不足.先后构建发电成本内、外生选择下的概率发电模型,求解发电商的电量供给均衡并分析概率发电策略的最优性.最后,将发电成本内生选择模型拓展到分解市场需求不确定性的概率发电模型.研究发现:相比基准发电,概率发电可以作为一种有利可图的发电容量过剩的解决方法,即使在发电成本内生选择时也是可行的;当发电商采用“强”成本差异的发电策略时,引入折中的概率发电会让产品线上成本水平相互更接近,且大用户的消费者剩余得到提高;与此相反,在市场中实施“弱”成本差异发电,发电商利用概率发电则增大成本分离并降低大用户的消费者剩余;在不确定性市场需求下,当偏好低发电成本电量的大用户对单位发电成本的估价相对于偏好高发电成本电量的大用户对单位发电成本的估价足够高时,概率发电可以以一种管理不利需求状况工具的身份出现.

For the vertical differentiated-generation-cost electricity market prevailing after carbon emission reduction and the significant differences in large user's generation capacity preference,the paper proposes a probabilistic supply of electric quantity and its corresponding probabilistic generating.Further,price leverage is utilized to regulate insufficient generation opportunity and insufficient supply efficiency of low-carbon generation,especially high generation cost generation.The probabilistic generating models under endogenous and exogenous choices of generation cost are constructed successively,the generator's electric supply quantity equilibria are solved,and the optimality of probabilistic generating strategies is analyzed.Finally,the model under endogenous generation cost choice is extended to the probabilistic generating model which decomposes the market demand uncertainty.The research finds that probabilistic generating can be regarded as a way to profitably dispose excess capacity compared to three generating benchmarks,and remains viable even when the generation cost choice is endogenous.When the generator employs a generation strategy of "strong"cost differentiation,the introduction of a compromised probabilistic generating causes closer cost levels in a product line,and enhances the large user’s consumer surplus.In contrast,in a market where the generator implements generating of"weak"cost differentiation,the use of probabilistic generating enlarges the cost separation and degrades the large user1 s consumer surplus.Under an uncertain market demand,when the large user preferring lower cost generation capacity has a sufficiently high valuation for the unit generation cost relative to the large user preferring higher cost generation capacity,probabilistic generating may be used as a tool to manage adverse demand conditions.