基于Sobol法对辽宁南部海水入侵敏感性分析探究

Sensitivity analysis of seawater intrusion in southern Liaoning based on Sobol method

针对辽南地区的水文地质现状,本文应用Sobol法通过建立地下水数值模型,将其应用于辽宁地区海水入侵的现状评价中,选取含水层第二层和第四层各自3个参数的6个观测点进行敏感性分析。研究结果表明:平均海水位对第二层各点位的浓度变化均有影响,O4点距离大清河最近,相应受平均海水位的影响最大。农用井开采量对O4~O6点影响较小,对O1~O3点影响较大。由于研究区大清河北岸平原面积小,农用井数量少,大清河南岸河谷平原较平坦宽阔,农用井分布多,总开采量较大,两岸之间又有大清河相隔,一定程度上干扰了水力联系,因此,南岸观测点相对敏感。该方法通俗易懂,计算方法简洁明了,便于掌握和应用,为海水入侵现状评价提供了一种有效可行的方法。

In view of the hydrogeological situation in southern Liaoning,this paper uses Sobol method to establish a groundwater numerical model and applies it to the evaluation of seawater intrusion in Liaoning.Six observation points with three parameters of the second and fourth aquifer layers are selected for sensitivity analysis.The results show that the average seawater level has an effect on the concentration change of each point on the second floor,and point O4 is the closest to Daqing River,which is affected most by the average seawater level.The yield of agricultural wells has less influence on point O4~O6 and greater influence on point O1~O3.Due to the small area of the north bank plain of the Daqing River and the small number of agricultural wells in the study area,the south bank valley plain of the Qing River is relatively flat and wide,with a large number of agricultural wells distributed and a large total production,and the two banks are separated by the Daqing River,which to some extent interferes with the hydraulic connection.Therefore,the observation points on the south bank are relatively sensitive.The method is easy to understand,the calculation method is simple and clear,easy to master and apply,and provides a feasible and effective method for seawater intrusion status assessment.