全球抗疫“政治曲线”中的文明因素

Civilization Factors in the Political Curve amid Global Fight Against COVID-19

新冠肺炎(COVID-19)全球大流行,疫情发展呈流行病学"钟形曲线"规律,但通过强有力的人工干预,会改变曲线的位置和形状。"钟形曲线"后半段的三个指标——峰值时间、峰值高度和下降速度,不同的干预方式会有完全不同的结果,所以它基本上是一条"政治曲线"。截止到2020年3月底,只有中国通过抗击疫情总体战、阻击战提前完成了一条独特的"政治曲线"。之所以会有这个结果,单纯的政治制度或意识形态解释不能成立。文章认为,决定"政治曲线"的真实因素深深植根在文明的土壤中,取决于那些同时决定了政府和人民各自特性的文明特性。

The global pandemic of COVID-19 has developed an epidemiological "bell curve" pattern, but the curve can be flattened by human intervention. With different interventions, the peak time, peak height, and rate of decline of the curve will be completely different. Thus it can be basically reckoned as a "political curve". By the end of March, only China had completed a unique "political curve" ahead of schedule through containment. This article argues that the real factors that determine the "political curve" are deeply rooted in the soil of civilization and depend on those civilizational characteristics that determine the respective identities of both government and people.