中国家庭能源消费变化趋势分析

Analysis on the Change Trend of Household Energy Consumption in China

研究家庭能源消费可为能源规划政策的制定提供科学依据。以中国家庭能源消费为研究对象,在全国和省域尺度上,分析了其在时间序列上的变化趋势及其空间差异。结果显示:(1)1997-2016年,中国城乡家庭能源消费在总量上的差距逐渐扩大,在人均量上逐渐缩小,说明城市化过程中家庭部门的能源消费不断向城市地区转移,同时农村家庭的能源消费水平也在不断提高;(2)电力消费在各地区均呈显著上升趋势,石油、天然气和热力基本呈上升趋势,煤炭在各地区有增有减,说明家庭能源结构呈现出电力等现代能源对煤炭的替代及煤炭的清洁化利用趋势;(3)不同能源消费类型的变化速率有很强的空间异质性,反映了家庭能源消费结构在各地区处于不同的发展阶段。

Investigating household energy consumption (HEC) can provide a scientific base for planning energy policies.This study focused on the HEC in China and analyzed its trend change and spatial differences in 30 sub-regions.Some results can be drawn:(1) From 1997-2016,the difference of total HEC between urban and rural areas enlarged,while the difference of per capita HEC shrank.This showed that the amount of HEC was moving to urban areas with urbanization,meanwhile per capita HEC in rural areas was rising.(2) Electricity consumption in all regions presented significantly increasing trend,while trend of oil,natural gas and heat in most region presented significantly increased,trend of coal consumption in some regions significantly increased while in other regions significantly decreased.These implied that HEC structure of China lay at the transformation period from unclean to clean energy.(3) Trend magnitudes in total and per capita of urban and rural HEC on each region had strong spatial heterogeneity.This showed that the transformation of HEC was at different stages of development in various regions.