基于TVP-VAR-SV模型的经济发展和PM2.5的联动关系研究——以北京市为例

Research on the Interaction between Economic Development and PM Based on TVP-VAR-SV Model:Taking Beijing as an Example

随着经济迅速发展,各类经济活动也带来了许多生态环境问题,其中以PM2.5为典型代表的大气污染,严重危害社会可持续发展,引起社会各界的关注。在要求实现经济建设与环境保护协调发展的大背景下,运用TVP-VAR-SV模型,就北京市2014年1月到2018年10月的月度时间序列,从宏观经济运行角度,深入分析北京市PM2.5值与当地经济活动的联动关系。实证结果表明:短期内房地产施工面积对北京市的PM2.5浓度影响最大,PM2.5本身次之,然后是工业总产值影响,游客周转量对其影响最小。最后根据脉冲响应分析,为治理北京市PM2.5污染问题,提出相应的政策建议。

With the rapid development of economy,various economic activities have brought many ecological and environmental problems.Among them,PM2.5 is the typical representative of air pollution,which seriously endangers the sustainable development of society and begins to attract the attention of all sectors of society.Under the background of the coordinated development of economic construction and environmental protection,this paper uses TVP-VAR-SV model to analyze the linkage between PM2.5 value and local economic activities from the perspective of macroeconomic operation based on the monthly time series of Beijing from January 2014 to October 2018.The Empirical results show that the space of buildings under construction is the largest influence on PM2.5 concentration in Beijing,PM2.5 itself is less,then is the gross value of industrial and the tourist turnover is the smallest.Finally,according to the impulse response analysis,the paper proposes several constructive policy suggestions for treating the PM2.5 pollution in Beijing.