基于DEMATEL-ISM的城市地下综合管廊火灾事故影响因素研究

Pursuit and determination of the influential factors of the urban underground integrated pipe gallery fire accidents based on the DEMATEL-ISM

针对城市地下综合管廊火灾事故的复杂性和不确定,基于人、机、环境、管理、信息5个方面的事故致因因素,考虑事故因素之间的交互与耦合作用,通过德尔菲法确定了城市地下综合管廊火灾事故的影响指标体系,提取了18个影响因素;采用实验室决策分析法找出了关键事故致因因素,在此基础上,利用解释结构模型法划分事故因素间的层次结构,构建城市地下综合管廊燃气舱火灾事故影响因素的多级递阶结构模型。结果表明:城市地下综合管廊火灾事故是近邻致因、过度致因和本质致因因素共同作用的结果,控制较低层级的影响因素是避免系统全面崩溃的有效途径。

The paper is aimed to set up a multilevel hierarchical structure model for the influential factors of the fire accidents in the comprehensive urban underground pipe gallery,so as to provide for the preliminary countermeasure of the decision-makers to deal with the accident prevention. For the said purpose,we have first of all traced and confirmed the influential factors that may account for such underground urban comprehensive pipe gallery fire accidents through literature review and sample-case examination based on the analysis of such factors as of man,machine,environment,management and information availability. And,secondly,we have also invited 5 experts to revise and rectify the index system of the fire accidents in the underground comprehensive pipe gallery via the Delphi method to extract the 18 influential factors. And,thirdly,we have found and worked out the key accident causative factors by decision making trial and assessment tests by dividing the hierarchical structure of the accident factors by interpreting the structure modeling method. And,finally,we have also established a multilevel hierarchical structure model of the influential factors of the fire accidents in the urban underground comprehensive pipe gallery. The results thus show that the most important factors leading to such accidents lie in the weak security culture,the cognitive defects,the weak system structure,the non-functional interaction,the information inaccuracy,the information detained and irrational control. The less influential factors may lie in the inefficient fire-fighting equipment,the delayed accident warning, failure of the pipe monitoring equipment,and the mechanical equipment inefficiency. Thus,it is also necessary to take into account the important factors in the fire accident control and analysis of the comprehensive pipe gallery,whereas some less influential factors should neither be ignored of the system accidents,which can better be divided into 5 levels to deal with such urban underground pipe gallery fire accidents. Therefore,based on the above said model,it can be concluded that the fire accidents of the urban underground integrated pipe gallery are likely to be caused by the neighborhood abuse of fire,or improper use of fire for warm-making. Therefore,the effective way to avoid fire accidents is to control and contract the influential factors to the lowest levels.