基于复杂网络和N-K模型的塔吊安全风险因素分析与控制

Analysis of the risk involved factors and safety control of the tower crane based on the complex network and N-K model

建筑工程的塔吊施工安全风险是一个涉及人员、机械及环境的复杂耦合系统,应从系统角度去分析和评价关键风险因素。通过融合复杂网络SNA模型和N-K模型形成了新的风险因素分析方法体系。其中,SNA模型的中心度分析提供了风险因素的系统关键性评价,SNA模型的可达性分析和N-K模型则提供了风险因素的耦合致险性评价,两个指标共同决定了关键风险因素。基于近年来我国塔吊安全事故案例库,通过SNA/N-K模型方法体系对建筑工程塔吊安全的关键风险因素进行了全面研究,并提出防控建议。结果表明,不利的环境风险因素诱发人-机-环-管多风险耦合能力突出,应进行专项管理。此外,身体心理健康状态差、特种工无资质、安全管理制度不完善、塔吊选型和设置不合理也是需要重点防控的关键风险因素。

The present paper is aimed to present a new risk analysis framework through the development and integration of the social network analysis (SNA) and the N-K model. The said N-K model can be adopted to evaluate the susceptibility of the tower crane safety from the point of view of the different coupling types of risk-involving factors,so as to obtain the potential coupling types of the different risk factors through the reachability analysis of the SNA model. Through the combination of the 2 sides,the risk factors should be analyzed and assessed from the perspective of risk factors themselves and the hazardous levels.At the same time,the principal analysis of SNA model has to be adopted to evaluate the crucial importance of the risk factors from the perspective of the entire machinery system. And,last of all,it is necessary to gain the key risk factors based on the evaluation results at the both levels. To achieve the purpose,the paper has first of all collected 172 sampling tower crane safety accidents that have taken place in recent years in China and established a structured database through such case study samples. And,next,we have developed a network topology of the risk factors for the tower crane accidents based on the risk factors and their mutual relations provided by the database. And,then,the SNA/N-K model has been used to evaluate the hazardous levels and the systematic importance of all the risk factors so as to gain the key risk factors of the tower crane safety. And,finally,we have proposed a few general management suggestions to improve the safety of the tower crane. The study results indicate that the environmental risk factors are critical because they can cause the coupling of human-equipment-environment-management risks,and hence should be managed and controlled with special measures. Besides,poor physical and mental status of the workers,lack of qualified certifications for special business lines,incomplete management system and inappropriate lecto-type and arrangement of tower cranes are also key risk factors needed to overcome and pay special attention to.