重点船型受海盗袭击的时空特征挖掘

Spatio-temporal analysis of the global piracy attack over the main types of ships

为了探索全球海盗袭击重点船型的时空特征,以世界海事组织(IMO)的全球海盗袭击事件数据库为基础,运用描述性统计分析、中心点分析、核密度分析及时空局部异常点分析等方法进行了分析。首先通过不同船型受海盗袭击的事件数对重点船型进行了筛选。在此基础上,通过描述性统计与中心点分析方法对油船、散货船、集装箱船、化学品船、油船这5种船型受海盗袭击的基本特征进行分析,运用核密度分析工具确定重点船型受海盗袭击的重点区域,运用时空局部异常点分析确定了在时空维度上均属于海盗袭击高度聚类的重点地区。最后,根据研究结果对重点船型提出海盗防治建议。海盗防治对全球海运贸易有重要意义,在"一带一路"的背景下,为了保证贸易和通行的安全性,相关政府组织可以根据研究结果确定海盗重点防护区域。

The present paper intends to make an exploration of the spatio-temporal characteristics of the main types of the global pirates attacking in different ship types by using the global piracy attack incidents data from the International Maritime Organization (IMO). And aimed to provide with the decision-making strategies to against such global piracy attack through the descriptive statistical analysis,which is combining with the centrality analysis,the kernel density analysis and the local outlier analysis in spatial and temporal dimensions. Based on the research purposes,first of all,the key ship types have screened based on the number of incidents of such attacks on the different ship types on reliance of the descriptive statistics to summarize and determine the key ship types affected in such pirate attacks. We have analyzed the core locations of the 5 different ship types through the kernel density. In the characteristics of key areas analysis,the local outliers’ method is applied to identify the key areas that are highly clustered by the pirate attacks both in spatial and temporal dimensions. Finally,through the analysis of the study,suggestions for preventing and controlling piracy are put forward for key ship types. The results of our study tend to show that different ship types have different features in piracy attack and also should have different prevent strategies. For instance,oil tankers and chemical tankers are more vulnerable to be attacked in Singapore,Somalia,and West Africa,whereas the bulk carriers are more vulnerable to be attacked in Singapore. However,the container ships are prone to be attacked in Singapore and Somalia.Thus,considering the spatio-temporal dimension and ship types,it is of primary significance to prevent from the piracy in the world maritime trade in the context of the so-called "One Belt and One Road"so as to guarantee and ensure the safety of the world trade for the relevant governmental organizations in the key protection areas based on the results of the present paper.