贸易冲突对中国出口美国集装箱影响的区域性差异

Analysis of Impact of Sino-US Trade Conflict on China-US Container Shipping by Region

为定量分析中美贸易冲突对中美航线集装箱运输的影响,对中国出口美国集装箱运量的变化及其区域性差异进行分析。运用固定效应面板模型测算不同类别商品的出口价格弹性,基于商品名称和编码识别中国对美国贸易的适箱商品,在此基础上预测中国出口美国集装箱运量的变化,并以省级行政区为对象,研究贸易冲突对中国出口美国集装箱影响的区域性差异。结果表明:中美贸易冲突使中国出口美国集装箱量的直接影响总体可控,而在出口美国集装箱运量的下降绝对值、下降率和出口集装箱总运量的下降率等3个方面,不同地区受贸易冲突的影响呈现明显差异。

In order to quantitatively analyze the impact of Sino-US trade conflict on China-US container shipping in different regions,the changes in container transportation volume from China to the US are investigated by region.The export price elasticity of different types of commodities is estimate with the fixed-effect panel model.Containerized cargoes within all goods shipped are identified based on HS codes.The impact of Sino-US trade conflict on container volume shipped from China to the US is quantitatively analyzed by province.The investigation shows that the direct impact of Sino-US trade conflict on container shipping business is controllable in general,but is significantly different by region in terms of the number of containers delivered to the US and its rate of decline.The total numbers of exported containers from different regions have also reduced at different rates.