重大外部事件冲击、民航业波动性与行业发展应对策略

Impact of Major External Events,Fluctuation of Civil AviationIndustry and Strategies for the Industry Development

作为高度环境敏感性的行业,民航很容易遭受地缘政治、能源危机、经济危机、公共卫生等国内外重大外部事件负面影响,引致行业发展困境。以新冠肺炎疫情对我国民航业发展影响为切入口,从全球和中国视角分析重大外部事件冲击与民航业发展周期波动的关联性,并结合2003年“非典”疫情复盘状况,研判中国民航业发展一般规律性态势,从政策出台、运输模式、内生机制、风险应对能力等提出应对外部冲击事件的策略建议,以此形成规律性的机制安排与常态化制度设计,提高中国民航业发展“反脆弱性”和韧性,更好地发挥民航在建设现代化强国中的行业支撑作用。

As a high-environmentally sensitive industry,civil aviation is vulnerable to the negative impact of geopolitics,energy crisis,economic crisis,public health and other major external events at home and abroad,thus resulting in plights of the industrial development.Based on the COVID-19 outbreak impact on the development of China's civil aviation,the paper analyzes the correlation between major external event impact and civil aviation development cycle from the global and China's perspective,and connecting with the 2003"SARS"epidemic checking status,studies and judges the general regularity development of Chinese civil aviation,puts forward strategies to cope with external shocks from the aspects of policy,transportation models,endogenous mechanism and risk response capacity,thus forming the regular mechanism arrangement and normalized system design,and finally improves the development of China civil aviation"vulnerability"and toughness so as to play a better supporting role for civil aviation industry in the construction of a modern and powerful country.