风险制造与风险规避:突发公共卫生事件中的人为因素及交互作用--基于新冠肺炎早期疫情的分析

Risk Creation and Risk Avoidance:Human Factors and Their Interaction in Public Health Emergencies--Analysis Based on Early Covid-19

人们通常厌恶那些制造风险的行为,但有些客观的风险制造却无法避免;人们多会赞许规避风险的行为,但有些刻意的规避却会带来更大的风险。深刻理解复杂人为因素在公共危机事件中的真实作用,有助于高效地应对危机。新冠肺炎疫情早期的演变显示,此次危机由多重风险因素和多种风险行为的耦合与级联引发。其中,一些人为因素的相互作用产生了风险振荡效应,突破了原有的风险防线,造成了病毒在时空维度的快速扩散;另一些人为因素在紧急情境下的交织产生了风险叠加的效果,进一步放大了疫情的社会影响,导致了更广领域和更深层次的灾难后果。有必要重新审视我国突发公共卫生事件的风险治理体系,从源头治理的视角及时打破风险因素间的紧密耦合,建立更坚固的风险防护冗余,减少风险振荡效应的影响,减缓风险因素之间的叠加作用,最大限度地降低未知因素带来的负面影响。

People usually hate those behaviors that create risk,hut some objective risk creation cannot be avoided.People often praise risk-avoiding behaviors,but some deliberate avoidances bring greater risks.A deep understanding of the true role of complex human factors in public crisis events can help to respond effectively to the crises.The early evolution of the COVID-19 showed that the crisis was triggered by the coupling and cascading of multiple risk factors and multiple risk behaviors.The interaction of some human factors has created a risk oscillation effect,breaking through the original risk defense line,and causing the rapid virus spreading in the space-time dimension.The intertwining of other human factors in emergenc'y situations has the effect of overlapping risks,further magnifying the social impact of the epidemic,leading to severe disaster consequences.It is necessary to re-examine the risk management system of public*health emergencies of China,to break the tight coupling between the risk factors in a timely manner from the source governance,to establish a stronger risk protection redundancy,to reduce the impact of risk oscillation effects,to slow down the overlapping effects of the risk factors,and to minimize the negative impact of the unknown factors.