我国经济不确定性度量及其非线性经济效应

Measurement of Economic Uncertainty in China and Its Nonlinear Economic Effects

经济不确定性是驱动经济波动的重要因素。本文在采用Jurado方法测度我国经济不确定性的基础上,采用非线性模型TVP-SVAR比较分析了不同期限的经济不确定性的经济效应。研究发现:中短期经济不确定性对我国经济增长有负向影响,而且在经济不确定性越高的时期越强,长期经济不确定性的影响较弱。其不利影响主要是通过改变总需求来影响经济运行,影响渠道主要表现为消费下降。同时,经济增速下降会使经济不确定性提高这一内生机制也加强了经济不确定性的经济影响。因此,政府采取适当的政策措施保障经济平稳运行有利于经济增长。

Economic uncertainty is an important factor driving economic fluctuations.This paper measures the economic uncertainty in China based on Jurado’s method,compares and analyzes the economic effects of economic uncertainty of different periods using nonlinear TVP-SVAR model.The results show that short-term and medium-term economic uncertainty has a negative impact on China’s economic growth while long-term economic uncertainty’s impact is weaker.And the higher the economic uncertainty is,the stronger the impact is.The impact affects the economic operation mainly by changing the aggregate demand,such as consumption.At the same time,the decline in economic growth will increase economic uncertainty.This endogenous mechanism also strengthens the economic impact of economic uncertainty.Therefore,the government taking appropriate policy measures to ensure the smooth operation of economy is conducive to economic growth.