信贷扩张如何影响家庭房地产投资?——以信用卡的扩散为例

How Does Credit Expansion Affect Households’Real Estate Investment?Evidence from the Diffusion of Credit Cards

经济衰退往往伴随着信用收缩,央行一般采用信贷扩张的刺激政策予以应对。然而,如果增加的信贷大量流入房地产,则会削弱相关政策的有效性。本文通过考察城市家庭使用信用卡购买二套房的行为,从家庭微观层面实证检验了信贷扩张对房地产投资行为的可能影响。本文发现,相对于没有信用卡的家庭,2013年持有信用卡的家庭在两年内购买二套房的可能性提高了3.6个百分点。本文的发现意味着,存在房地产升值预期的情况下,提供给家庭的消费信用仍然会流入房地产,这不仅会削弱相关货币政策的有效性,而且可能加剧房地产过热,增加系统性风险。

A recession is often associated with a credit contraction.Therefore,providing credits to the economy may help the economy’s recovery.However,with a large amount of credit flowing into real estate rather than the other part of the economy,macro-policies that attempt to stimulate the economy through credit expansion may be weakened.By investigating the decision of urban households on purchasing their second house,this paper examines the impact of credit expansion on the real estate market.We find that households with credit cards in 2013 were 3.6 percentage points more likely to purchase the second house than households without.Our findings suggest that in the presence of real estate appreciation expectations,consumer credit provided to households will still flow into the real estate market,which not only weakens the effectiveness of stimulus policies,but also may further deteriorate the systematic risks by overheating the real estate market.