广东省对流层HCHO柱浓度时空动态分布及影响分析

Spatiotemporal dynamic distribution and influence analysis of HCHO column concentration in troposphere of Guangdong Province

本文基于OMI卫星遥感反演数据,结合趋势分析、残差分析及Hurst指数,对广东省2009-2018年对流层甲醛柱浓度时空分布特征进行了分析,并结合NDVI、工业总产值、汽车保有量等因素,进一步探究了广东省自然和社会要素结构变化与甲醛柱浓度变化的关系.结果表明,广东省近10年的甲醛柱浓度均值为15.365×1015 molec·cm^-2,处于全国前列水平,且近10年来年际间浓度变化波动较大.研究发现,甲醛柱浓度四季变化较为明显,春季高、夏季低,且季节性增长较为明显,其中,春、秋、冬三季平均增幅达到15.5%;月际变化与季节变化较为一致,受自然因素影响较为强烈.空间变化主要表现为甲醛柱浓度值由西南往东北递增,其中,高值区分布在广东省的中部和东北部地区,低值区分布在南部和西南部地区;残差研究发现,人类活动依然是影响广东省甲醛分布的主要因素,占87.64%,影响因素主要包括规模以上企业数量、工业废气排放等经济发展要素,并与能源消耗总量及工业生产总值的增加密切相关.自然因素如气温、降水、NDVI对甲醛的生成和分布有促进作用.通过Hurst指数可以发现,未来广东省甲醛柱浓度整体呈下降的趋势,但部分地区如东莞、深圳市等地未来有增加的趋势.

Based on the OMI satellite remote sensing inversion data, combined with trend analysis, residual analysis, and Hurst index, the spatiotemporal distribution of HCHO column concentration in Guangdong Province from 2009 to 2018 was analyzed. At the same time, combining the factors of NDVI, gross industrial output value and car ownership, the relationship among natural, the structure of social factors and changes in HCHO column concentration has been further discussed. The results showed that the average value of HCHO column concentration was 15.365×10^15 molec·cm^-2 in Guangdong Province in last decade, which was more serious across the whole country, and the interannual concentration changes fluctuated greatly in the past decade. In seasonal changes, the concentration of HCHO column changes significantly in the four seasons, high in spring and low in summer, and the seasonal growth was relatively obvious, of which the average growth rate in spring, autumn and winter reached 15.5%. And the inter-monthly change was consistent with the seasonal change, which was strongly influenced by natural factors. The spatial change was mainly manifested in the increase of HCHO column concentration from southwest to northeast, in which the high value is distributed in the central and northeast, while the low value is distributed in the south and southwest.The residual study found that human activity was the main factor affecting the distribution of HCHO in Guangdong Province, with a contribution value of 87.64%.The influencing factors mainly include the number of enterprises above the scale, industrial exhaust emissions, total energy consumption and increase in total industrial production. Among Natural factors, temperature, precipitation and NDVI promote the formation and distribution of HCHO. According to the Hurst index, it can be found that the HCHO column concentration will generally decrease in the future, but it will increase in some areas such as Dongguan and Shenzhen in the future.