中国对日本蔬菜出口贸易波动及驱动因素实证研究——基于修正的 CMS模型

An Empirical Study on Fluctuation and Driving Forces of China’s Vegetable Export Trade to Japan——based on Revised CMS Model

利用UN Comtrade数据库数据,通过修正的CMS模型对2003年至2018年中国对日本蔬菜出口贸易波动情况及其原因进行了分析,并得出以下结论:中国对日蔬菜出口的市场份额占比较大且稳定,近五年中国对日蔬菜出口贸易额及市场占有率呈缓慢下降趋势;需求效应是中国对日蔬菜出口增长的最主要作用;在不同时期,价格竞争力并没有对中国对日蔬菜出口产生明显的促进作用,这可能意味着中国蔬菜在日本市场并不具有价格优势。

This study introduces the fluctuations of China’s vegetable export trade to Japan and analyzes the driving forces for China’s export growth to Japan in the commodity of vegetables from 2003 to 2018 by using the revised CMS model and the data of UN Comtrade Database.Then it finds the following conclusions:first of all,China’s vegetables in Japan have a large and stable market share,but there is a declining tendency of trading value and market share in past five years.Second,the market demand effect is the main driving force to China’s vegetable export growth to Japan.Third,in different periods,the competitiveness effect has not positive impact on promoting the export of China’s vegetables to Japan,which means there is no price advantage of China’s veg etables in Japan.