甘肃省生态安全时空演变特征及影响因素解析

Spatio⁃temporal evolution and influencing factors of ecological security pattern in Gansu Province

生态安全是维持经济社会与生态可持续发展的重要保障。西部大开发与"一带一路"倡议实施以来,西部城镇发展迅速,经济效益大幅提高,生态环境却面临极大挑战。因此,以西北地区重要生态屏障区甘肃省为研究对象,基于"省公顷"概念改进传统生态足迹模型,评价2005—2015年甘肃省生态环境演变特征和生态安全状况,定量解析其驱动因素。结果表明:(1)2005—2015年甘肃省人均生态足迹与人均生态承载力分别由0.51 hm^2/人和0.22 hm^2/人增加至0.69 hm^2/人和0.47 hm^2/人,生态承载力增加速度较快,但自然资源依旧呈"供小于求"的状态。(2)甘肃省人均生态赤字由-0.20 hm^2/人变化至-0.33 hm^2/人,生态恶化程度不断加深。生态压力也由2.07升至2.74,生态安全处于很不安全状态,总体"西北高、东南低"的格局与城镇化布局相一致。(3)各影响因素对生态安全变化的决定力存在明显差异,其中人均GDP对生态安全扰动最强,其余因素影响程度依次为"人均能源消费>第二产业占GDP比重>城镇化率>人口密度>科教支出占总支出比"。

Ecological security is an important guarantee for maintaining economic,social and ecological sustainable development.Since the implementation of the Western Development and the“One Belt,One Road”strategies,the western cities and towns have developed rapidly and the economic benefits have been greatly improved.However,the ecological environment is facing great challenges.Therefore,this paper takes Gansu Province,an important ecological barrier area in the northwestern region,as the research object.By improving the traditional ecological footprint model based on the concept of“provincial hectare”,we evaluated the ecological environment evolution characteristics and ecological security status from 2005 to 2015 and quantitatively analyzed its driving factors.The results showed that(1)the per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity of Gansu Province increased from 0.51 hm2/person and 0.22 hm2/person to 0.69 hm2/person and 0.47 hm2/person from 2005 to 2015,respectively.The ecological carrying capacity increased at a faster rate,but the natural resources were still in a state of“supply less than demand”.(2)The per capita ecological deficit in Gansu Province changed from-0.20 hm2/person to-0.33 hm2/person,and the degree of ecological deterioration increased continuously.The ecological pressure also rose from 2.07 to 2.74,and the ecological security was in a very unsafe state.The overall pattern of“northwest high and southeast low”was consistent with the urbanization layout.(3)There were significant differences in the decision-making power of various influencing factors on ecological security change.Among them,per capita GDP had the strongest disturbance to ecological security.The other factors affected the degree of per capita energy consumption>the proportion of secondary industry to GDP>urbanization rate>population Density>Science and education expenditure as a percentage of total expenditure.