支持“一带一路”低碳发展的绿色金融路线图

A Green Finance Roadmap to Support the Low Carbon Development of the Belt and Road Initiative

本文对"一带一路"国家的增长前景及其与碳排放的关系进行分行业测算,测算表明:基于历史上的发展模式和增长预测并假设当前趋势不变,则"一带一路"主要国家的排放量将高于《巴黎协定》所要求的排放目标;若不改变"一带一路"国家现有的碳排放趋势,即使全球其他国家均实现"2度情景"所要求的减排目标,到2050年全球温度仍可能处于未来上升近3摄氏度的发展路径。为促进"一带一路"国家向可持续发展模式转型,实现《巴黎协定》的全球气候目标,有必要在"一带一路"倡议中强调绿色低碳投资的关键作用。

This study estimates the industrial growth expectation and carbon emission for Belt and Road countries(B&R countries).The results indicate that,given the historical patterns of development and investment,as well as the growth forecast unchanged,the carbon emission of major B&R countries would exceed the 2-Degree Scenario(2 DS),the Paris Agreement’s global warming limit.Even if all the other countries could follow the 2 DS path,there could be a 3 degrees Celsius rise of warming pathway in global temperature by 2050.Thus it should be emphasized in B&R countries that,green finance and low-carbon investment are the keys to transforming to the sustainable development mode and meeting the global climate goal in Paris Agreement.