社保减免政策对上海养老保险基金的影响及政策选择

Impact of Social Insurance Deduction on Shanghai Pension and Policy Options

本文在梳理社保减免政策的基础上,估算该减免政策对上海养老保险基金收入的影响,结果显示该影响的最低值约为580亿元,基于官方预测的估算约为800亿元。基于该估算结果,本文对上海养老保险基金的可持续性进行分析,最后提出在经济增速下行周期以更大的政策力度进一步完善养老保险的相关政策建议,包括将国资划转给全国社保基金的比例由10%提高到20%,由全国社保基金最终承担影响;试点非缴费型的零支柱养老金,提高低收入群体的获得感;加快第一支柱基础养老金的全国统筹,提高对企业的激励;扩大第二支柱的个人账户占比,提高对劳动者的激励。

The paper estimates the impact of the social insurance deduction policy on Shanghai pension income in the short term as 58 billion RMB at least,80 billion RMB based on the Shanghai official prediction;then it analyzes its impact on the sustainability of Shanghai pension system;and finally puts forward some policy options on how to improve the social insurance policies in response to these impacts.These policy options include the following:raising the ration of the state-owned assets transfer to National Social Security Fund from 10%to 20%,letting National Social Security Fund finally bear these impacts,making experiment of noncontribution Zero-pillar pension so as to raise the gain sense from low-income groups,speeding the national pooling of the First-pillar basic pension so as to raise the incentive to enterprises,enlarging the proportion of the Second-pillar individual account pension so as to raise the incentive to workers,etc.