养老保险提升中国农村居民幸福感的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Pension Insurance on Chinese Rural Residents’ Happiness

在市场经济大潮的裹挟下,脱离乡土的就业机会不断增加,利益动机正在深刻改变着中国农村的传统养老观念。尽管"多子多福式"的家庭养老和保险养老同时发生在中国农民身上,但两者的关系是替代还是互补,以及养老保险是否让农民更幸福,需要在理论和实证层面上给予认真思考。在本文中,我们引入了农村居民对子女提供赡养预期的异质性假定,构建了农村居民的生育决策模型,通过该模型详细分析了养老保险所带来的福利状况。理论模型指出,农村居民对子女赡养预期会影响其生育决策,但父母对子女提供赡养预期的差异并不影响养老保险的福利提升作用。在此基础上,本文利用CGSS2015微观调查数据对理论结果进行检验,发现养老保险的主观幸福提升效应显著;未成年子女数对农民的幸福感知不显著,成年子女数越多的农民越容易汇报更幸福;子女数和养老保险对农民幸福感的决定存在互补效应而非替代效应;异质性检验则指出,相比经济欠发达和经济发达地区,养老保险在中等发达地区的幸福提升效应更显著;养老保险更能使步入中年和老年的农民汇报更高的幸福水平。

Amidst the tide of the market economy,employment opportunities that leave the rural area are increasing.Interest motives are profoundly changing the traditional Chinese elderly support concept.Although the traditional elderly support by family and insurance pension happen to Chinese farmers at the same time,the relationship between the two alternative or complementary?We need to think seriously at the theoretical and empirical level.In this paper,We introduces the heterogeneous assumption that rural residents provide support expectations for their children,and constructes a model of rural residents’ reproductive decision-making.Through this model,we analyzes in detail the welfare status brought by pension insurance.Theoretical models point out that rural residents’ expectation of their children’s support will affect their childbearing decisions,but the difference in parents’ expectation of their children’s support does not affect the benefits of pension insurance.On this basis,this article uses the CGSS2015 micro survey data to test the theoretical results and finds that the effect of improving the subjective well-being by pension insurance is significant.Farmers with more adult children are more likely to report and are happier.The number of children and pension insurance have a complementary effect rather than a substitution effect on the farmers’ happiness.The heterogeneity test points out that compared with less-developed and economically developed regions,pension insurance has a more significant effect of improving happiness in moderately developed regions.Pension insurance can make middle-aged and elderly farmers report higher levels of happiness.