摘要
基于信息熵权理论,提出采用区间熵理论定量计算风险事件发生概率及其潜在损失的基本方法,推导出区间熵和熵权公式,给出风险分析步骤,实现了对风险发生概率和损失的统一区间表达与计算,并可利用风险评价矩阵法确定风险等级。最后,以某地铁盾构法施工风险分析为例,通过计算,验证了所提出的区间熵理论在工程风险定量分析中的应用是可行的。
Based on the theory of information entropy weight,a basic approach is proposed,which quantitatively calculates the probability of risk occurrence and the potential loss with interval entropy theory,then the interval entropy and an entropy weight formula are deducted.Through risk analysis steps,the unified interval expression and calculation of risk probability and loss are realized,and the risk estimation matrix is used to determine the risk levels.Finally,according to the risk analysis of a metro shield construction,the calculation verifies the application feasibility of interval entropy theory in quantitative assessment of engineering risks.
作者
张晓斌
李俊伟
吕培印
朱俊平
ZHANG Xiaobin;LI Junwei;LYU Peiyin(Department of Applied Chemistry,Yuncheng College,044099,Yuncheng,China;不详)
出处
《城市轨道交通研究》
北大核心
2020年第8期35-39,共5页
Urban Mass Transit
基金
科技部重大专项课题(2017YFC0805408)
运城学院博士科研项目(YQ-2020003)。
关键词
地铁施工
区间熵
不确定性
专家调查法
概率与损失计算
metro construction
interval entropy
uncertainty
expert investigation method
risk probability and loss assessment
