“互联网+”与区域金融业发展是否“互利共生”?——基于耦合协同评价和VAR模型研究

Is “Internet +” a Mutually Beneficial Symbiosis with the Development of Regional Financial Industry?:Based on Coupling Cooperative Assessment and VAR Model

互利共生原指两种生活在一起的生物,可以相互促进彼此之间的生长发育,但离开之后彼此之间都会受到很大的限制。在当今"互联网+"时代,区域金融业的发展需要以"互联网+"为依托,同时"互联网+"的发展需要金融业提供资金支持,从理论上说,两者之间"互利共生"(即协同发展)是必然趋势,但实际上真是如此吗?本文利用2008—2017年江西省"互联网+"与区域金融业的二级指标数据,分别构建两者的得分评价指标体系,同时构建耦合协同发展评价模型和VAR模型,将两者得分代入模型,实证分析两者的耦合协同关系以及格兰杰因果关系。通过分析实证结果,得出以下几点结论:(1)随着年份的增加,江西省"互联网+"与金融业耦合协同发展越来越好;(2)江西省的"互联网+"发展对金融业发展的促进能力较弱,金融业发展对"互联网+"发展有着显著的正向促进作业;(3)江西省"互联网+"与金融业发展的"互利共生"关系还没显现出来。

Mutually beneficial symbiosis originally refers to two living organisms,which can promote each other’s growth and development.But after leaving each other,they will both be greatly restricted.In today’s "Internet +" era,the development of the financial industry needs to rely on "Internet +".At the same time,the development of "Internet +" needs financial support from the financial industry.Theoretically,the"mutualism"(i.e.coordinated development) between the two is inevitable.But is that really the case? In this paper,we use the sencondary indicator data of Jiangxi province "Internet +" and financial industry between 2008 and 2017 to build the scoring evaluation index system respectively.At the same time,we build a coupled collaborative development evaluation model and VAR model,and integrate the two scores into the model to analyze the coupling synergy and Grainger causality.Through the analysis of the empirical results,this paper draws following conclusions.Firstly,with the increase of the year,Jiangxi’s "Internet +" and financial industry synergy development is getting better and better.Secondly,Jiangxi’s "Internet +" development has a weak promotion to the development of the financial industry,while the development of the financial industry has a positive effect on the development of "Internet +".Thirdly,this mutual relationship between the development of "Internet +" and financial industry has not yet emerged.