全球价值链背景下中国对外贸易隐含碳研究

Embodied carbon in China’s foreign trade from perspective of global value chain

基于GTAP 10.0数据库,采用MRIO模型重新对国际贸易隐含碳结构进行剖析,着重分析中国对外贸易中所担任的角色,根据进出口隐含碳排放流向探究各地区的"碳泄露"情况。结果显示:2014年国际贸易隐含碳排放总量为17 309.19 Mt,约占当年全世界碳排放总量的53.59%,其中,贸易总出口隐含碳占比达24.38%,主要集中在第二产业的公用事业和建筑业;基于消费侧核算原则,中国的贸易隐含碳排放回落了近6个百分点,而美国上涨了2.4个百分点;中国是最大贸易隐含碳出口国,主要为发达国家服务,成为发达国家逃避责任的"避风港",美国是最大贸易隐含碳进口国,为各国的主要服务对象,是最大的污染源。

Based on the GTAP 10.0 database,this paper re-analyzes the embodied carbon structure of international trade using the MRIO model,focuses on the role played in China’s foreign trade,and tries to explore the“carbon leakage”situation in various regions according to the flow of embodied carbon in imports and exports.The results show that the embodied carbon in international trade was 17309.19 million tons in 2014,accounting for 53.59%of the total global carbon emissions in that year,of which the embodied carbon from total trade exports accounted for 24.38%,mainly concentrated in the public utilities and construction industry in the secondary industry.Compared to production-based accounting,China’s trade embodied carbon emissions fell by nearly 6 percentage points in consumption-based accounting,while the United States rose by 2.4 percentage points.China is the largest exporter of embodied carbon in trade,mainly serving developed countries,become a“shelter”for the developed countries to avoid responsibility.The United States is the largest importer of embodied carbon in trade,serving as the main target of each country and a true“source of pollution”.