基于STIRPAT模型的吉林省碳排放驱动因素研究

吉林省2017年碳排放量达到21427万t,较1998年增长3倍。通过对吉林省20年来社会经济数据分析发现,人口、人均GDP、居民消费水平、城镇化率、一次能源占比、二次产业占比以及固定资产投资占比对碳排放起着正向驱动作用,碳排放强度起负向驱动作用,弹性系数分别为3.666,0.085,0.117,1.452,1.864,0.601,0.14和-0.062。

Jilin province's carbon emissions reached 214.27 million tons in 2017,a threefold increase from 1998.Through the analysis of the social and economic data of Jilin Province over the past 20 years,it has been found that population,GDP per capita,consumption level of residents,urbanization rate,proportion of primary energy,proportion of secondary industry and proportion of investment in fixed assets play positive driving roles in carbon emissions,and the intensity of carbon emissions plays a negative driving role,and the elastic coefficients were 3.666,0.085,0.117,1.452,1.864,0.601,0.14 and-0.062 respectively.