气候变化背景下鄂州市近60年气温变化特征分析

Analysis of temperature change characteristics in Ezhou city in recent 60 years under the background of climate change

基于鄂州市1959—2018年逐日气温资料,应用一元线性回归、Mann-Kendall突变检验结合累积距平法、小波分析等方法对鄂州市近60年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、极端最高气温和极端最低气温变化特征进行统计分析。结果表明,鄂州市近60年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、极端最高气温和极端最低气温都呈波动上升趋势,平均最低气温和极端最低气温的上升趋势相对于平均最高气温和极端最高气温的上升趋势更为明显;年平均气温无明显突变;年平均最高气温在2002年发生突变;年平均最低气温在1989年发生突变;年极端最高气温在2008年发生突变;年极端最低气温在1981年发生突变;年平均气温表现为准18年、准10年的年代际周期和准4年尺度的年际周期;年平均最高气温表现为准16年的年代际周期和准4年尺度的年际周期;年平均最低气温表现为准30年、准18年和准10年的年代际周期以及准4年的年际周期;极端最高气温表现为准12年的年代际周期和4~6年及2~4年的年际周期;极端最低气温表现为准30年、准16年和准10年的年代际周期以及准6年和准4年的年际周期。

Based on the daily temperature data of Ezhou city from 1959 to 2018,the variation characteristics of the average temperature,the average maximum temperature,the average minimum temperature,the extreme maximum temperature and the extreme minimum temperature in recent 60 years in Ezhou city were analyzed by means of linear regression,Mann-Kendall mutation test,cumulative anomaly method and wavelet analysis.The results showed that in recent 60 years,the average temperature,the average maximum temperature,the average minimum temperature,the extreme maximum temperature and the extreme minimum temperature in Ezhou all showed a fluctuating upward trend.The upward trend of the average minimum temperature and the extreme minimum temperature was more obvious than that of the average maximum temperature and the extreme maximum temperature.The annual mean temperature had no obvious mutation;The annual maximum temperature had mutation in 2002;The annual minimum temperature had mutation in 1989;The annual extreme maximum temperature had mutation in 2008;And the annual extreme minimum temperature had mutation in 1981.The annual mean temperature showed quasi-18-year,quasi-10-year interdecadal cycle and quasi-4-year interdecadal cycle;The annual maximum temperature showed quasi-16-year interdecadal cycle and quasi-4-year interdecadal cycle;The annual minimum temperature showed quasi-30-year,quasi-18-year and quasi-10-year interdecadal cycle,quasi-4-year interdecadal cycle;And extreme maximum temperature showed quasi-12-year interdecadal cycle and 4~6 years and 2~4 years interdecadal cycle.The extreme minimum temperature showed quasi-30-year,quasi-16-year and quasi-10-year interdecadal cycle,quasi-6-year and quasi-4-year interdecadal cycle.