基于SPI和SRI的马别河流域气象与水文干旱相关性分析

Analysis of the relationship between the meteorological and hydrological drought in Mabie river basin based on SPI and SRI

利用马别河流域1982—2015年逐月降水量和径流量资料,采用标准化降雨指数(SPI)和标准化径流指数(SRI)分析马别河流域气象与水文干旱特征,并探索气象与水文干旱之间的相关性。结果表明,1982—2015年,马别河流域每2~3年会出现1次不同程度的干旱,年尺度上,气象干旱变化趋势不显著;季尺度上,秋旱有显著加重趋势,春、夏、冬三季变化趋势不显著;年尺度上,水文干旱有显著加重的趋势,2000年后水文干旱频率明显增加,干旱年数占1982—2015年水文干旱年数的70%。马别河流域气象与水文干旱之间有紧密的相关性和一定的时滞性,1、3、6、12个月的时间尺度中,12个月尺度的SPI12与SRI12相关性最好,水文干旱滞后气象干旱1个月。

Based on the monthly precipitation and runoff data in Mabie river basin during 1982—2015,the characteristic and variation of hydrological and meteorological drought are analyzedby using standardized rainfall index(SPI)and standardized runoff index(SRI),and then the correlation between meteorology and hydrological drought are explored.The results show that different degrees of drought occurred every 2~3 years in the Mabie river basin during 1982—2015.The trend of meteorological drought is not significant at the annual scale.At the seasonal scale,the trend of meteorological drought in autumn increases significantly,and the trend of drought in spring,summer and winter is not significant.At the annual scale,hydrological drought has a significant increase trend.After 2000,the frequency of hydrological drought increases significantly,and the number of drought years accounts for 70% of the number of hydrological drought years from 1982 to 2015.There is a close correlation and time-delay relationship to some extent between meteorology and hydrological drought in the Mabie river basin.Among the time scales of 1,3,6 and 12 months,the correlation between SPI12 and SRI12 is the best at 12 months,and the correlation coefficient between the SPI12 and the SRI12 of one-month lag is the largest,indicating that the occurrence of a hydrological drought lagged behind the meteorological drought for one month.