黄河流域经济集聚的碳强度时空跃迁效应研究

Spatiotemporal Transition Effects of Carbon Intensity in the Economic Accumulation of the Yellow River Basin

文章将环境变量(碳排放)纳入供给端改进的产出密度模型,对经济集聚和碳排放强度的非线性相关性进行理论剖析,选取探索性时空数据分析方法(ESTDA)对黄河流域碳排放强度开展空间统计分析,进而利用2000-2017年黄河流域九省样本数据构造动态空间面板分位数模型,并结合分位数回归和碳排放强度时空跃迁嵌套模型,揭示碳排放强度时空跃迁路径下经济集聚的驱动效应。研究发现:黄河流域碳排放强度存在较为显著的时空路径依赖性,呈现"集聚"和"分异"并存的空间分布格局且存在较高程度的空间稳定性;黄河流域经济集聚与碳排放强度存在显著且稳健的"倒U"型曲线关系,而经济集聚的空间溢出效应整体上则显著为正;黄河流域各省区的碳排放强度跃迁状态和驱动模式存在差异,"低分位制约"和"高分位驱动"模式并存,基于经济集聚等驱动的碳强度下降目标的实现路径亦有所不同。文章据此提出,在强化区域碳排放强度动态监测的同时,充分发挥经济集聚对于碳排放强度的抑制作用,既要推动地区间环境污染联防联控机制的形成,又要基于区域异质性明晰差异化的低碳减排路径。

This paper takes environmental variables(carbon emissions)into the supply side improved output density model,and analyzes the nonlinear correlation between economic agglomeration and carbon emission intensity.In this paper,ESTDA is selected to carry out spatial statistical analysis on carbon emission intensity of the Yellow River Basin,and then a dynamic spatial panel quantile model is constructed based on the sample data of nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2017.Combined with quantile regression and nested model of spatiotemporal transition of carbon emission intensity,the driving effect of economic agglomeration under the path of spatiotemporal transition of carbon emission intensity is revealed.The results show that the carbon emission intensity of the Yellow River Basin has a significant temporal and spatial path dependence,showing a spatial distribution pattern of"agglomeration"and"differentiation",and has a high degree of spatial stability;there is a significant"inverted U"curve relationship between economic agglomeration and carbon emission intensity in the Yellow River Basin,while the spatial spillover effect of economic agglomeration is significantly positive on the whole;there are differences in the transition state and driving mode of carbon emission intensity among provinces and regions in the Yellow River Basin,"low quantile restriction"and"high level driving"mode coexist,and the realization path of carbon intensity reduction target driven by economic agglomeration is also different.Based on this,this paper puts forward that while strengthening the dynamic monitoring of regional carbon emission intensity,we should give full play to the inhibitory effect of economic agglomeration on carbon emission intensity.We should not only promote the formation of regional joint prevention and control mechanism of environmental pollution,but also clarify the differentiated low-carbon emission reduction path based on regional heterogeneity.