“一带一路”沿线国家基础设施建设对中国对外贸易的非线性影响--基于面板门槛模型的研究

The Nonlinear Impact of “the Belt and Road” Countries Infrastructure on China’s Foreign Trade--Based on the Panel Threshold Model

在Melitz异质性企业模型中引入基础设施建设水平指标,结合"一带一路"沿线国家基础设施建设及与中国的贸易合作现状对两者间可能存在的非线性关系提出假设。同时,利用主成分分析测算了2006~2016年"一带一路"沿线55个国家的基础设施建设指标,通过构建面板门槛模型对沿线国家基础设施建设与中国对外贸易间的非线性关系进行了实证检验。研究表明:"一带一路"沿线国家基础设施的完善可以促进中国对外贸易的增长,但正向作用会随着基础设施水平和经济规模的变化而发生改变。而基础设施较薄弱、经济规模较小的沿线国家,其基础设施水平的提高对中国对外贸易的促进作用更大。

This paper introduces the infrastructure level index in the Melitz heterogeneous enterprise model,and combines the infrastructure construction of the countries along"the Belt and Road"and the status of trade cooperation with China to make assumptions about the possible nonlinear relationship between them.In addition,this paper uses principal component analysis to measure the infrastructure construction indicators of 55 countries along the route from 2006 to 2016,and empirically tests the nonlinear relationship between the infrastructure of the countries along "the Belt and Road"and China’s foreign trade by constructing a panel threshold model.Research shows that the improvement of infrastructure in the countries along"the Belt and Road"can promote the growth of China’s foreign trade,but the positive effect will change with changes in infrastructure levels and economic scale.The countries with weaker infrastructure construction and relatively smaller economic scale will have a greater role in promoting China’s foreign trade by improving their infrastructure.