新兴市场跨境资本流动异常的驱动因素研究——基于“一带一路”国家样本

Research on the Drivers of Abnormal Cross-border Capital Flows in Emerging Markets:Based on“One Belt and One Road”Country Samples

随着金融全球化发展及货币宽松政策的实施,各国间资本流动越来越频繁。近年来,资本流动异常现象频繁发生,造成市场产出紧缩,成为新兴市场国家发展的重要障碍。将资本分为FDI资本、证券资本、其他资本三类,用阈值法对选取的18个“一带一路”国家资本流动状况进行测度,将异常分为激增、突停、外逃、撤回。将资本流动异常的影响因素分为拉动因素和推动因素,并选取18个国家1996—2018年的相关数据,通过Probit面板回归对造成各项资本流动异常的因素进行分析。结果发现:FDI资本稳定性最强,其他资本次之,证券资本稳定性最弱,且FDI资本更多地受到拉动因素影响,其他资本和证券资本更易受推动因素和拉动因素的同时影响。

With the development of financial globalization and the implementation of monetary easing policy,capital flows between countries are becoming more and more frequent.In recent years,abnormal phenomena of capital flow occur frequently,resulting in the contraction of market output and becoming an important obstacle to the development of emerging market countries.This paper divides the capital into three categories:FDI capital,securities capital and other capital.The threshold method is used to measure the capital flow status of the selected 18 One Belt And One Road countries,and the anomalies are divided into the surge,sudden stop,flight,and withdrawal.This paper divides the influencing factors of abnormal capital flow into pulling factors and driving factors and selects relevant data of 18 countries from 1996 to 2018 to analyze the factors that cause abnormal capital flow through Probit panel regression.We find that the stability of FDI capital is the strongest,followed by other capital and securities capital is the weakest,and FDI capital is more affected by pulling factors,while other capital and securities capital are more affected by both driving factors and pull factors.