房地产市场调控:形格势禁还是政策信号

Real Estate Market Readjustment and Control:Restrictive Tendency or Policy Signal

对手工整理的26个样本城市2007—2017年207项限购、限贷、税收等房地产调控政策以及中指数据库月度新建住宅交易数据的详细分析表明;各类政策对交易量影响较大进而影响市场规模,但对价格的调控效果相对有限;政策效果不限于其本身的规定和限制,政策释放出的“信号”,对市场预期产生影响是政策发挥作用的重要机制,例如较小的契税税率调整可使销售量大幅下降。因此,政策制定时,除政策内容本身,应更重视信号作用对市场主体预期的影响;为使房地产市场健康发展,空置税等释放“房住不炒”信号的政策适宜作为房地产市场的调控措施。

This essay makes a detailed analysis of 207 manually-sorted items of 26 sample cities from 2007 to 2017 concerning the policy for the real estate readjustment and control in purchase restriction,mortgage limitation and tax regulation.The essay also studies the influence made by various policies upon the real estate market and their functional mechanisms,combined with the monthly transaction data of newly-built residential housing from China Real Estate Index System.The study shows that these policies have made a comparatively great effect on the residential property transaction volume and further on the size of real estate market,with relatively limited effect on the readjustment and control of the residential property prices.The effect of these policies has not been confined to their own regulations and restrictions.The signal released by these policies has produced its influence upon the real estate market as expected,which is an important mechanism for these policies to take effect.For instance,a smaller regulation of deed tax rate may greatly decreased the sale of residential housing.The authors of this essay hold that when the concerning polices are made,more importance should be attached to the intended impact caused by the signal effect upon the property market entity,besides the contents of the policies themselves.To develop the real estate market in a healthy way,such a policy as the levy of vacancy tax which releases the signal that"houses are used for habitation,not for speculation",is appropriate as a readjustment-and-control measure for the real estate market.