结构转换、全要素生产率与高质量发展

Structural Transformation, TFP and High-quality Development

中国经济正处在由高速增长转向高质量发展的关键阶段,加速结构转换是否有利于提升全要素生产率?这已成为当前必须高度重视和亟待解决的重大现实问题。本文利用全球169个国家经济增长的面板数据,对结构转换怎样影响全要素生产率这一问题进行实证研究。主要结论是:(1)结构转换对全要素生产率的影响效应呈现"倒U"型。当结构转换度位于拐点值左侧时,结构转换有利于加速产业结构软化,进而对全要素生产率表现出促进效应;当结构转换度位于拐点值右侧时,结构转换则会引发产业空心化,从而对全要素生产率表现出抑制效应。(2)中国改革开放以来的结构转换已从适应性调整阶段转向战略性调整阶段,产业结构的服务化趋势愈加明显,但结构转换度总体上尚处在"倒U"曲线拐点值的左侧,结构转换对全要素生产率的影响表现为促进效应。(3)提升全要素生产率是实现高质量发展的核心源泉,因此,中国当前阶段追求高质量发展,应适当降低增长速度预期,更加注重供给侧结构性改革,通过加速结构转换来促进全要素生产率提升。本文的研究发现为中国加快新旧动能接续转换、推进高质量发展提供了政策参考依据。

Since China's economy is at a critical stage of transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development,the question that if the structural transformation promotes high-quality development has become a major practical issue that must be highly valued and urgently addressed.In this paper,we empirically test how economic structural transformation affects the total factor productivity(TFP)by using the panel quantile regression model and the growth data of 169 countries in the world.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The effect of stnictural transfonnation on TFP shows an inverted U-shaped curve.When the structural transformation degree is on the left of the inflection point value,it will be beneficial to accelerate the intenerating of the industrial structure,and thus promotes the TFP;however,when the structural transformation degree is on the right of the inflection point value,it will cause the industry to hollow out,which exhibits an inhibitory effect on TFP.(2)The structural transformation since China's reform and opening-up has shifted from adaptive adjustment to strategic adjustment,and simultaneously the industrial structure shows an accelerated intenerating trend.While the structural transformation degree is still on the left side of the inflection point of the inverted U curve,thus its impact on TFP is manifested as a facilitating effect.(3)Because the core source for achieving high-quality development is enhancing TFP,we should appropriately reduce the growth rate expectations,pay more attention to deepening supply-side structural reforms,and promote the improvement of TFP by accelerating structural transformation in the current stage of China's pursuit of high-quality development.The findings in this paper provide a policy reference for China to accelerate the shift in driving forces and promote high-quality development.