2010—2018年中国农村多维贫困:分布与特征

Distribution and Features of the Multidimensional Poverty in Rural China betweem 2010 and 2018

2020年是中国脱贫攻坚的收关期,总结过去十年农村贫困的脱贫进程、成因变化与深浅分布,是后脱贫时代维持脱贫成效的首要工作。基于CFPS调查4390个持续追踪的农村家庭样本,本文采用A-F双界法,估测2010—2018年中国农村多维贫困指数。研究表明,第一,初始贫困水平更高的省份具有更大的脱贫幅度,有利于中国政府确保贫困地区与其他地区同步完成脱贫目标;第二,农村家庭的能力匮乏点发生转变,儿童辍学、医疗保险与养老保险已不再是主要贡献因素,劳动能力、医疗负担与日常结余等抗风险能力与发展能力成为稳定脱贫成效的关键领域;第三,中国农村多维贫困的主要问题是贫困者受剥夺程度深,深度贫困者返贫阻碍了多维贫困的进一步下降。本文认为,中国农村的贫困特征已从生存困难向发展不足转变,针对性地解决深度剥夺维度、持续追踪深度贫困人群将有助于2020年后农村防贫困、农户促发展。

2020 is the decisive year for China’s targeted poverty alleviation task.The primary work is to sum up the policy effect,dimensional contribution and poverty distribution in the last 10 years,which will help to prevent the return of poverty thereafter.Based on 4390 rural households continuously tracked by CFPS,this paper estimates the rural multidimensional poverty in China between 2010 and 2018 with the A-F"dual-cutoff"approach.The results are as follows.First,the regions with larger initial poverty tend to have reduced more.It is the guarantee for the Chinese government to achieve its poverty target of lifting all the rural poor out of poverty at the same time.Second,the deprived capability of rural households has changed.School dropout,medical insurance and endowment insurance are no longer the main factors to multidimensional poverty.Anti-risk capability and development capability have become the key areas to maintain the sustainability of poverty reduction.Third,multidimensional poverty manifests the deprived depth.The deterioration of the poorer households is the main reason that hinders multidimensional poverty reduction.Our results suggest the characteristics of China’s rural poverty have changed from living difficulties to insufficient development.Targeting the dimensions of deep deprivation and consistently tracking people living in deep poverty will help to prevent poverty and promote development in rural China after 2020.