基于GM(1,1)模型的2019—2024年中国快递行业发展预测

Forecast of Development of Chinese Express Industry from 2019 to 2024 Based on GM(1,1)Model

从国家统计局等权威网站上爬取获得2013—2018年全国邮政行业总业务量以及顺丰等快递公司的总业务量和营业额数据。首先计算出各年业务量平均值及6年中各月快递量占6年总值的比例,将其作为原始数据,由原始序列生成累加序列,接着由累加序列生成序列的均值数列,最后运用优化过的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对2019—2024年全国快递行业总业务量及民营快递企业业务量进行预测。

From the authoritative website of the National Bureau of Statistics,the total business volume of the postal industry in 2013-2018,as well as the total business volume and turnover data of express companies such as SF Express and STO Express,etc.were obtained.First,calculated the average business volume of each year and the proportion of express delivery volume in each month of six years to the total value of six years,took it as the original data,generated the accumulation sequence from the original sequence,then generated the mean sequence from the accumulation sequence,and finally used the GM(1,1)grey prediction model to predict the total business volume of the national express industry and the business volume of private express enterprises from 2019 to 2024.