不确定性、锚定效应与新企业的出口行为

Uncertainty,Anchoring Effect and Export Behavior of Start-ups

经济主体在不确定性环境下的决策极易受到不完全理性因素的影响。本文从有限理性的视角,分析不确定性情境下企业出口决策受锚定效应的影响,尝试探索新的贸易动因。鉴于新企业面临更强的不确定性,且可以有效地规避“学习效应”的干扰,本文选用中国工业企业数据库中新企业为样本,研究发现:新企业的出口行为存在明显的锚定效应,其成立当年的出口决策依赖于对同类企业相似行为的锚定,其后续出口决策依赖于成立当年的决策,锚定效应对出口行为的促进作用远大于企业规模等传统因素的影响;锚定效应的作用机制依赖于市场环境的不确定性及由此诱发的不完全理性行为,在控制了“从邻居学习”等效应后,锚定效应仍然显著。本文的研究结论对不确定性环境下推动“一带一路”倡议、应对逆全球化浪潮和完善创新创业相关政策具有一定的参考价值。

Decisions of economic entity under uncertain environments are susceptible to irrational factors.Based on bounded rationality,this paper explores new trade drivers by combining the anchoring effect and export decision of firms under uncertain environments.In view of the fact that start-ups face stronger uncertainty and can effectively avoid interference of the"learning effect".This paper selects start-ups from Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database,and finds that:Firstly,an obvious anchoring effect on export behavior of start-ups,export decision of start-ups in the established year relied on anchoring of similar behavior of similar enterprises,and its subsequent export decision relied on the decision in the established year;secondly,the anchoring effect is far greater than traditional factors such as scale;thirdly,the mechanism of the anchoring effect depends on the uncertainty of the market environment and the incomplete rational behavior induced by uncertainty,and the anchoring effect still hold after control“Learning from Neighbors”.Our finds can provide referential comments for promoting the“Belt and Road Initiative”in the uncertain environment,completing the policies related to innovation and entrepreneurship and responding to anti-globalization wave.