我国不同时期税制结构的宏观经济效应研究

Study on the Different Periods'Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Structure in China

基于一个带有潜在门限变量的时变系数向量自回归(LT-TVP-VAR)模型,运用高维计算优势实证分析了经济危机时期、经济复苏时期和经济新常态时期我国税制结构的宏观经济效应。结果发现:在经济危机时期,税制结构对产出、消费、金融具有较强的抑制效应,对物价具有较弱的促进效应;在经济复苏时期,税制结构对产出和物价具有较弱的促进效应,对消费和金融具有较弱的抑制效应;在经济新常态时期,税制结构对产出、消费、金融具有较弱的抑制效应,而对物价具有较强的促进效应;税制结构只能引起物价的短期波动,而对产出、消费、金融会产生长期影响。政府应积极实施结构性减税政策,着力健全直接税体系并完善间接税制度,合理优化税制结构以促进我国宏观经济长期平稳发展。

Based on a time-varying coefficient vector autoregressive model with potential threshold variables(LT-TVP-VAR),using high-dimensional computing advantages to empirically analyze the macroeconomic effects of China's tax structure in the period of economic crisis,economic recovery and economic new normal.The results show that:in the period of economic crisis,tax structure has a stronger inhibitory effect on output,consumption and finance,and a weaker promotion effect on prices;in the period of economic recovery,tax structure has a weaker promotion effect on output and prices,and a weaker inhibitory effect on consumption and finance;in the new normal period,tax structure has a weaker inhibitory effect on output,consumption and finance,and a stronger promotion effect on prices.The tax structure can only cause short-term fluctuations in prices,and it has long-term effects on output,consumption,and finance.The government should actively implement the structural tax reduction policy,strive to improve the direct tax system and the indirect tax system,and rationally optimize the tax system structure to promote the long-term stable development of China's macro-economy.