世界农产品贸易条件的动态变化及收敛性研究

Analysis on the Dynamic Changes and Convergence of Terms of Trade of Agricultural Products

贸易条件体现了一国对外贸易交换的利益关系,农产品贸易条件的变化不仅关系到本国农业贸易利益的多少,更关系着农业生产者福利和农业产业发展前景。本文使用UN-Comtrade数据库1996-2017年的农产品进出口数据,测算和分析了世界55个样本国的农产品贸易条件,在此基础上,对世界农产品贸易条件的动态变化和收敛特征进行比较分析。研究结果表明,1996-2017年,中国农产品贸易条件表现出了严峻的恶化趋势,贸易条件均值低于发展中国家农产品贸易条件的平均水平;发达国家的农产品贸易条件整体上显著高于发展中国家,在世界农产品贸易利益分配格局中占据主要地位。从收敛情况看,样本发达国家和发展中国家存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,各国农产品贸易条件在自身的稳态水平收敛;发展中国家的收敛速度快于发达国家,表现出明显的"追赶"态势。通过农产品贸易条件的国际比较,本文探讨了全球农业贸易体系的国际分工问题。

The change of agricultural products’terms of trade(TOT)is not only related to the trade gains,but also related to farmers’welfare and industry development.In this paper,agricultural trade data from UN Comtrade database were used to calculate the TOT of 55 sample countries in the world,and the dynamic changes as well as convergence characteristics of TOT were compared and analyzed.The results show that,from 1996 to 2017,the TOT of agricultural products in China showed a severe trend of deterioration,lower than the average level of the TOT in developing countries.The TOT of agricultural products in developed countries are significantly higher than that in developing countries,which means developed countries occupying a dominant position in the distribution pattern of world agricultural trade gains.In terms of convergence,there are absolute convergence and conditional convergence in the developed and developing countries.The convergence speed of developing countries is faster than that of developed countries,showing an obvious“catch-up”trend.Through the international comparison of the terms of trade of agricultural products,this paper discusses the benefit distribution of global agricultural trade.