中部崛起战略对城市环境质量的影响研究——基于PSM-DID方法的分析

Research on the Impact of Central China's Rising Strategy on Urban Environmental Quality——An Analysis Based on PSM-DID Method

本文使用中国地级及以上城市的面板数据,结合倾向得分匹配-双重差分法(PSM-DID)对中部崛起战略的环境污染净效应进行实证检验。研究发现:第一,中部崛起战略显著加剧了中部城市的环境污染问题,采用稳健性检验后,研究结论并没有发生实质性改变。第二,根据动态效应检验结果,中部崛起战略对中部城市环境质量的抑制效应在短期和中期是显著的,且在政策实施第二年起呈逐渐减弱趋势,但是该抑制作用在长期内趋于消失。第三,异质性检验结果表明,中部崛起战略显著恶化了中部地区一般地级市的环境质量,而未对高行政等级城市的环境质量产生实质影响。第四,作用机制甄别结果表明,中部崛起战略显著提升了中部地区的资源开采强度、利用外资强度与工业化程度,进而加剧了中部城市的环境污染。

This paper uses the panel data of prefecture-level cities and above in China,using a PSM-DID method to test the net effect of central China’s rising strategy on environmental pollution.The study found that:(1)The central China’s rising strategy has significantly aggravated the environmental pollution.(2)According to the dynamic effect test,the inhibitory effect of the central China’s rising strategy on the environmental quality is significant in the short and medium term,and gradually weakens from the second year of policy implementation,but the inhibition tends to disappear in the long run.(3)The heterogeneity test shows that the strategy of the central China’s rising strategy has significantly worsened the environmental quality of the general prefecture-level cities,but has not had a substantial impact on the environmental quality of high-ranking cities.(4)The mechanism test indicates that the central China’s rising strategy has significantly enhanced the intensity of resource exploitation,industrialization and the use of foreign capital,which has aggravated environmental pollution in central cities.