黑龙江省粮食水足迹时空分布规律与影响因素分析

Spatial and Temporal Distributions of Crop Water Footprint and Its Influence Factors Analysis in Heilongjiang Province

为分析黑龙江省粮食水足迹的变化规律,根据水足迹理论,选取2008—2018年黑龙江省11个地区进行粮食水足迹评价,并对其时空分布规律及影响因素进行研究。结果表明:黑龙江省粮食蓝水足迹、绿水足迹的空间分布差异显著,呈现南北高、东西低的分布趋势。通过斯皮尔曼相关系数分析可知,东、西横向地区人口密度大,可用于粮食生产的灌溉水资源消耗少,粮食蓝水足迹较低;南、北部致力于农业生产,农业灌溉用水消耗较大,粮食蓝水足迹较高。南、北部降水储蓄率高,因而南、北部粮食绿水足迹较高;东、西部横向地区地势较为平坦,植被少,降水不易蓄积,所以东、西部绿水足迹相对较低。利用时间序列模型对黑龙江省粮食水足迹进行预测得出,2021—2025年黑龙江省粮食总水足迹平均值为2050 m^3/t。本研究可为黑龙江省农业水资源的合理分配和利用提供参考。

In order to evaluate the change of crop water footprint in Heilongjiang Province in recent years,the water footprint of 11 regions in Heilongjiang Province were calculated from 2008 to 2018 based on water footprint theory,meanwhile its spatial and temporal distributions and its influential factors were analyzed.The results showed that the blue and green crop water footprints varied geographically in an enormous way,the distribution trend was high in south and north regions and low in east and west regions.According to the Spelman’s analysis of correlation coefficient,it could be acknowledged that the east-west horizontal regions had high population density,which caused small consumption of water resources used for crop irrigation and it rendered low trend in water footprint in the east-west horizontal regions.The north-south regions were devoted to agricultural production and it had high consumption of agricultural water and relatively high in blue water footprint.The north-south regions in Heilongjiang Province had good storage capacity of rainfall,so north-south regions presented high trend in green water footprint.In east-west regions,their terrains were flat with less coverage of vegetation,which made it low in green water footprint.According temporal series model to predict the regular pattern of crop water footprint in Heilongjiang Province,the total crop water footprint in Heilongjiang Province in 2021 to 2025 was forecasted as 2050 m^3/t steadily.The research result would be important in arranging the use of agricultural water resources in recent years.