基于时序信息迭代的变权方法及应用

Variable Weight Method Based on Time Sequential Information Iteration and Its Application

为克服传统动态评价中权重不能随指标属性值变化从而不能准确刻画指标侧重关系的缺陷,文章在变权理论的指导下,构建了一种基于指标数值变化的变权方法,以2011—2015年科技评价中典型的14个省域的空间面板数据检验该变权方法的合理性及变权权重的适应性与有效性。研究表明:通过变权设计,可以较清晰地看出各省域在发展中每一时期的侧重因素层面,2012—2013年"科技投入"层面和2014—2015年"科技对社会的影响"层面受到了普遍重视,获得了较大权重。该变权方法的突出特点是可以对指标进行"奖惩激励",具有较好的研究与应用价值。

In order to overcome the defect of traditional dynamic evaluation that the weight does not change with the attribute value of the index and thus cannot accurately depict the emphasis relationship of the index,under the guidance of variable weight theory,this paper proposes a variable weight method based on the change of index value,and uses the typical spatial panel data of 14 provinces in the science and technology evaluation from 2011 to 2015 to verify the rationality of the variable weight method and the adaptability and effectiveness of the variable weight method.The research shows that through variable weight design,we can clearly see the emphasis factors of each period in the development of each province,and that the"investment in science and technology"from 2012 to 2013,and the"impact of science and technology on society"from 2014 to 2015 have been widely valued,thus gaining relatively greater weight.The outstanding characteristic of the variable weight method is that it can carry out the"reward-and-punishment incentives"for the indicators,which has good research and application value.