疫情影响下中国制造业参与全球产业链的变化及应对

Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on Chinese Manufacturing Industry's participation in the Global Industrial Chain and Countermeasures

新冠肺炎疫情影响下中国制造业参与全球产业链发生了变化。疫情在不同时间段对全球产业链的影响,分别表现为"全球产业链波动"和"全球产业链重构"。当疫情持续时间短于库存周转周期时,会造成全球需求萎缩,带来全球产业链波动;在此情景下中国制造业将受到不同程度的损失,且这种损失会被"长鞭效应"放大。具体而言,印刷、化学与化学制品制造、汽车制造等行业会在全球产业链波动中受到较大损失。而当疫情持续时间长于库存周转周期时,疫情会增大跨国生产和贸易的不确定性以及经营成本,加速全球产业链的重构,加大部分产业链移出中国的风险。从具体行业来看,煤炭与石油产品制造、汽车制造、造纸等行业国际竞争力较弱,在全球产业链重构情景下可能会遭受较大损失。面对疫情给中国制造业参与全球产业链带来的冲击,中国应该做好稳链固链强链工作,积极应对全球产业链波动给制造业带来的损失;同时积极推进自身产业升级,以达到在全球产业链中的不可替代性,在全球产业链重构中避免中国制造业被挤出产业链。

This article studies the changes of Chinese manufacturing industry’s participation in the global industrial chain under the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic.By constructing a theoretical framework,the impact of the epidemic on the global industrial chain was analyzed from different time dimensions,and it was found that the epidemic would bring two scenarios of"global industrial chain fluctuation"and"global industrial chain reconstruction"in different durations.Firstly,when the duration of the epidemic is shorter than the inventory turnover cycle,the epidemic will cause global demand to shrink and bring about"Global industry chain fluctuations";in this scenario,Chinese manufacturing industry will suffer varying degrees of loss,and this loss will be amplified by"the bullwhip effect".Specifically,printing industry,furniture and other manufacturing industries,textile and leather manufacturing industry,automobile manufacturing industry and other industries will suffer great losses in the"Global industry chain fluctuation".Second,when the epidemic lasts longer than the inventory turnover cycle,the epidemic will increase the uncertainty of cross-border production and trade and operating costs,accelerate the reconstruction of the global industrial chain,and increase the risk of most industrial chains moving out of China.In terms of specific industries,the in-ternational competitiveness of industries such as coal and petroleum product manufacturing,automobile manufacturing,and papermaking is relatively weak,and they may suffer significant losses under the scenario of"global industrial chain reconstruction".Facing the impact of the epidemic on China’s manufacturing industry’s participation in the global industrial chain,China should strive to do a good job of stabilizing and strengthening the industry chain,and actively respond to the losses caused by the"global industry chain fluctuation"to the manufacturing industry.Meanwhile,China should promote its own industry upgrade to achieve irreplaceability in the global industrial chain and avoid the Chinese manufacturing industry being squeezed out of the industrial chain under the"global industrial chain reconstruction".