非线性时变因子模型下中国区域价格水平的俱乐部收敛检验

Club convergence of China’s regional price level based on a nonlinear time-varying factor model

区域价格水平收敛性检验对商品市场是否存在区域分割具有重要研究意义。为研究中国区域价格水平收敛情况,首先基于非线性时变因子模型对中国1999-2017年的居民消费价格指数进行logt回归和俱乐部收敛检验,发现全国范围内不存在CPI趋同,中国商品市场存在区域分割,且形成了3个趋同俱乐部和1个发散组。然后,利用各俱乐部的空间分布和Ordered Probit模型对俱乐部形成机制进行探索,发现趋同俱乐部的形成与地理位置有关,距离越近的省市,越容易出现CPI趋同,商品房平均销售价格和国际旅游外汇收入对俱乐部的转移影响显著。最后,对比最长距离法的聚类结果可知,基于logt回归的聚类结果是稳健的。

Convergence test of regional price level is of great research significance to the research of regional segmentation in the commodity market.To study the convergence of regional price level in China,logtregression and club convergence test are carried out for China’s consumer price index(CPI)from 1999 to 2017 based on a nonlinear time-varying factor model firstly.The results show that the CPI is not convergent nationwide,China’s commodity market has been segmented by regions,and 3 convergence clubs and 1 divergence group have been formed in China.Secondly,the club formation mechanism is explored based on the space distribution of each club and Ordered Probit model,and it is found that the formation of convergence club is related to geographical location.This means CPI convergence is more likely to occur for close regions,and the average sales price of commercial housing and foreign exchange earnings from international tourism have a significant effect on the transfer of the clubs.Last,comparison of the clustering results of the longest distance method indicates that the clustering result based on logtregression is robust.