基于熵权灰色关联分析的恐怖袭击危害指标研究

Research on Hazard Index of Terrorist Attack Based on Grey Relational Analysis of Entropy Weight

基于恐怖袭击数据,研究恐怖袭击事件危害指标及影响因素。首先对恐怖袭击事件的危害进行定性分析,然后采用基于熵权的灰色关联分析方法进行定量分析,最后对全球恐怖主义数据库(GTD)数据进行研究,获得各危害指标的影响因素权重和危害程度大小排序,形成恐怖袭击事件危害评价指标体系。该成果可为恐怖袭击事件危害评价、预测和预警及制定反恐防控措施和方案提供科学依据。

According to the data of the terrorist attack,this paper puts forward a method to analyze the harm index of the terrorist attack and its influencing factors.Firstly,the harm of terrorist attack is analyzed qualitatively.Secondly,the method of grey correlation analy⁃sis based on entropy weight is given.Finally,a case study is made on the data of global terrorism database(GTD)to obtain the weight of the influential factors of each hazard index and the ranking of the hazard degree,forming an index system to evaluate the hazard of terrorist attacks.The results can provide a scientific basis for people’s evaluation,prediction and early warning of terrorist attacks.