2014—2019年四川眉山市初诊肺结核患者流行病学及趋势预测分析

Epidemiology and trend forecast of newly diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Meishan City,2014-2019

目的了解2014—2019年眉山市初诊肺结核患者流行病学特征,并进行趋势预测分析,为制定防治策略提供理论依据。方法将来源于中国传染病网络直报系统眉山市2014—2019年初诊肺结核患者报告数及眉山市统计局统计年鉴的数据导入Excel中汇总和整理。分析2014—2019年眉山市初诊肺结核患者流行病学特征,利用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测未来两年眉山市肺结核流行趋势。结果2014—2019年眉山市累计报告涂阳肺结核1832例,涂阳肺结核年平均报告发病率为26.95/10万,涂阳肺结核发病率总体呈下降趋势;1832例初诊肺结核病例中,以男性、31~40岁、春季、乡镇、农民和学生为主;灰色GM(1,1)模型得出的2014—2019年眉山市肺结核预测发病率与实际发病率基本吻合,模型预测2020年和2021年肺结核发病率分别为27.68/10万、30.25/10万。结论2014—2019年眉山市初诊肺结核发病率总体呈下降趋势,未来两年肺结核发病率有上升趋势,应加强对高危人群、区域以及高发季节的预防控制措施。

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of the newly diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Meishan City from 2014 to 2019,and to carry out trend prediction and analysis,so as to provide theoretical basis for the formulation of prevention and control strategies.Methods Raw data of newly diagnosed tuberculosis patients in Meishan City from 2014 to 2019 were collected from Meishan Statistical Yearbook.And Excel was used to manage the raw data.The epidemiological characteristics of newly diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Meishan City from 2014 to 2019 were analyzed,and the epidemic trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Meishan City in the next two years was predicted by grey GM(1,1)model.Results From 2014 to 2019,a total of 1832 smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases were reported in Meishan City.The annual average reported incidence rate of smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis was 26.95/100000.The overall incidence rate of smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis showed a downward trend.Among the 1832 newly diagnosed tuberculosis cases,the majority were male,aged 31~40 years old,spring onset,township residence and rural residence,farmers and students.The predicted incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Meishan City from 2014 to 2019 based on grey GM(1,1)model is basically consistent with the actual incidence,and the predicted incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in 2020 and 2021 are 27.68/100000 and 30.25/100000 respectively.Conclusion The incidence of newly diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis in Meishan City from 2014 to 2019 has a downward trend in general,while it may increase in the next two years,so the prevention and control measures for high-risk groups,regions and seasons should be strengthened.