大麦进口关税政策调整对中国大麦产业的影响——基于局部均衡模型的模拟分析

The Impact of Import Tariff Policy Adjustment on China’s Barley Industry——A Simulation Analysis based on a Partial Equilibrium Model

本文基于国家粮油信息中心、FAOSTAT数据库的1995—2019年中国大麦供给与需求数据,以大麦进口最大来源国澳大利亚为例,以在《中澳自贸协定》下中国对澳大利亚进口大麦实行零关税为参照,应用中国农业产业模型模拟分析大麦进口关税政策调整对大麦产业的影响。研究表明,大麦进口关税调整对大麦产业具有重要影响。(1)在大麦进口关税分别提高到3%、12%和20%的情况下,大麦饲用消费需求下降3.50%、12.29%和16.77%,影响较为显著;(2)国内大麦价格上涨2.89%、11.54%和19.23%,总产量提高1.00%、3.86%和5.88%,对国内大麦产业起到一定的保护作用;(3)大麦净进口量将下降2.20%、7.82%和10.84%,产生一定的贸易保护效应。为此,本文提出实施大麦贸易保护与救济、提高国内生产能力、增强国际竞争力等政策建议。

Using data from CNGOIC and FAOSTAT and taking China’s zero-tariff import from Australian barley as an example,this paper analyzed the impact of barley import tariff adjustment on China’s barley industry using CASM.The results showed that the tariff adjustment has an important impact on the barley industry.If the tariff was increased to 3%,12%,20%respectively,the feed consumption would fall by 3.50%,12.29%,16.77%,the price would increase by 2.89%,11.54%,19.23%,and the production would increase by 1.00%,3.86%,5.88%,respectively.Moreover,the net import would decrease by 2.20%,7.82%,10.84%,indicating a strong protective effect.We put forward policy recommendations for implementing trade protection,improving production capacity,and enhancing the international competitiveness of China.