基于产销区及地域视角的鸡蛋价格空间传导分析

Analysis ofthe spatial transmission of Egg Price Based on th Perspective of Production and Marketing Areas and Geographical Regions

本文基于产销和地域两个视角,采用非线性的MS-VAR模型和DCC-GARCH模型从均值溢出效应和波动溢出效应两个方面,探究了鸡蛋市场价格空间传导特征以及动态关联效应。结果表明:(1)从鸡蛋产销区视角来看,主产区和主销区鸡蛋价格互相引导,但传导存在非对称性,价格下跌市场状态下鸡蛋价格主要由主销区鸡蛋价格主导,而价格上涨市场状态下鸡蛋价格主要由主产区鸡蛋价格主导;鸡蛋产销区市场间关联程度总体相对较高,且呈上升趋势,但由于外部因素影响导致关联性并不稳定。(2)从不同地域视角来看,作为主产区的华北地区在不同地域间鸡蛋价格传导中处于主导地位,也是中国鸡蛋市场价格波动的地域源头,作为主销区的东南地区对其他地区鸡蛋价格也有一定的影响,而其他地域价格主要处于从属地位;不同地域市场间关联程度具有差异性和时变性,但关联程度总体均较高,且均呈上升趋势。

This paper uses the non-linear MS-VAR model and DCC-GARCH model to explore the spatial transmission characteristics and dynamic correlation effects of egg market price from the two aspects of mean spillover effect and volatility spillover effect based on the perspective of production and marketing areas and geographical regions.The results show that the price of eggs in the main production areas and the main sales areas lead to each other,but the transmission is asymmetric from the perspective of egg production and marketing areas.Egg prices are mainly dominated by egg prices in the marketing areas under the state of falling prices,while egg prices are mainly dominated by egg prices in the producing areas under the state of rising prices.The correlation degree between markets in egg production and marketing areas is relatively high,and it is on the rise,but the correlation is not stable.North China,as the main producing area,plays a leading role in the transmission of egg prices among different regions,which is also the regional source of price fluctuation in China’s egg market.The Southeast region,as the main selling area,also has some influence on the egg prices of other regions,while the prices of other regions are mainly in a subordinate position.The degree of correlation among different regional markets is different and time-varying,but the degree of correlation is generally higher,and the trend is upward.