二季度经济学家信心指数回升至临界点以上 预期我国经济复苏态势继续向好——2020年二季度中国百名经济学家信心调查报告

Economists Confidence Index(ECI)Rises Back Above the Threshold in Q22020 Economic Recovery Is Expected to Keep Improving--Report of the Survey on the Confidence of About 100 Chinese Economists in Q2 2020

国家统计局中国经济景气监测中心于2020年6月开展的中国百名经济学家信心调查显示,二季度经济学家信心指数回升至临界点以上,其中即期经济景气指数仍在临界点以下,预期经济景气指数连续三个季度上升,表明经济学家对我国经济稳步复苏态势持续看好。经济学家认为新冠肺炎疫情持续冲击下,全球贸易和投资复苏乏力,全球经济陷入严重衰退,95%的经济学家预期2020年全球经济负增长。经济学家预期我国就业压力仍然较大,消费价格趋向回落,生产价格趋于上升,消费和投资需求继续好转。

China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center(CEMAC)of the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS)conducted a survey on the confidence of about 100 Chinese economists in June 2020,according to which,the Economists Confidence Index(ECI)rose back above the threshold in the second quarter(Q2)of 2020.Specifically,the Current Economic Climate Index was still below the threshold,while the Expected Economic Climate Index had risen for three quarters in a row,indicating that economists continue to be optimistic about the steady recovery of the Chinese economy.