应对重大疫情危机事件的决策机制与制度研究

Research on Decision-making Mechanisms and Systems for Responding to Major Epidemic Crisis Events

新冠疫情突发事件从初期的大规模暴发到中后期的有效管控,体现了中国在应对重大疫情方面的制度优势,同时也暴露出某些机制存在的短板和不足。随着经济社会的发展以及国际环境不确定性的增加,完善应对重大疫情危机事件的决策机制与制度体系是当今我国面临的重要问题。利用"动态博弈""智猪博弈"两个博弈模型,分析疫情暴发的深层次原因,以当前国际上应急管理较为成熟的国家为参照,对中国未来应对疫情危机事件的新机制与改革方向进行了探索。

The COVID-19 epidemic has been control effectively from the initial large-scale outbreak to the middle and late stages of the epidemic,which demonstrated China’s ability to respond to major epidemics. It also exposed the shortcomings and deficiencies of certain mechanisms. With social and economic development and increasing uncertainty in the international environment,it is important to improve the decision-making mechanisms and systems for responding to major epidemic and crisis events. The system is an important problem that needs to be solved in China today. The two game models of "dynamic game"and "wise pig game"are used to analyze the deep-seated causes of the beginning outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic. The new mechanism and the direction of systemic reform for responding to future epidemic crises in China were explored with reference to the more mature countries in international emergency management.