基于灰色系统模型的特种设备安全事故预测研究

Research on Safety Accident Prediction of Special Equipment Based on Grey Models

为探究利用灰色系统一阶单变量微分方程模型预测特种设备安全事故的可行性,应用灰色理论以近5年来全国特种设备死亡人数、万台设备死亡人数为数据基础建立灰色预测模型。经过后验差方法对模型进行精确度检验,结果显示:建立的模型预测精度等级均为好。预测模型的预测结果与我国特种设备事故统计结果相比误差较小,也符合我国特种设备安全事故的发展规律,证实了所建模型的可靠性,同时也表明灰色理论的预测模型适合我国特种设备安全事故的发展趋势预测研究。

In order to explore the feasibility of application of the first-order single variable differential equation model of grey system to predict the safety accidents of special equipment,a grey prediction model is established based on the data of death toll of special equipment and death toll of 10,000 units special equipment the whole country in the past five years.The accuracyof of the model is tested by posterior difference method.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is good.Compared with the statistical results of special equipment accidents in China,the error of the prediction results of the prediction model is smaller,which also conforms with the development law of special equipment safety accidents in China.The reliability of the model is proved,and the grey theory prediction model is suitable for the development trend prediction of special equipment safety accidents in China.